Middle East enforcement without resolution dominates the outlook: US naval strikes near Iran are likely to continue while a formal ceasefire stays out of reach, even as falling Brent crude (~$88) signals markets are not pricing a Hormuz closure. In parallel, the first confirmed autonomous drone kills are accelerating a global lethal-autonomy procurement race, alongside Ukraine's intensifying interdiction of Crimea's last land route and a warming-driven 2026 temperature milestone.

The climatologist holds the highest agent weight (0.40) and the Skeptic gave a strong risk score (83). The physics is fairly mechanical: a 2025 baseline of ~+1.19°C, decadal warming trend of +0.337°C/decade (~+0.03/yr), and typical El Niño uplift of +0.1-0.2°C produce a central 2026 estimate near +1.30°C — pushing exceedance of +1.25°C above a coin flip. The Skeptic's caveat (reliance on one media report plus broad historical ranges) and the genuine question of whether a mid-2026-forming El Niño fully boosts the 2026 annual mean (peak warming often lags into the following year) prevent high confidence. My environment-sector calibration shows mild over-prediction (~6pp), so I trim from a fundamentals-based ~0.72 to 0.67. The climate chain's 'Climate Signal Without Immediate Crisis' interpretation (continued warming without acute crisis) is consistent with this. Bayesian and climate-risk pillars converge.