Governments are running into hard budget limits: Russia is cutting welfare to pay for a record military budget, Iran is warning of winter gas shortages after war damage, and the Turkish lira is close to 50 per dollar. At the same time, protests in France and Albania, settler violence in the West Bank and new Russian internet restrictions all look likely to continue this autumn.

Iran has had a structural winter gas shortfall for years. In late 2024 it cut gas to industry and power plants and closed offices and schools in December. This year, damage from the US-Israel campaign makes the supply gap worse, and the government itself is now publicly warning of shortages. That is unusual and suggests it is preparing the public for restrictions. One risk to timing: an older Iran Focus report quotes officials promising no cuts until January. Iran's peak demand usually arrives in mid-December, so a 75-day window is tight but workable. Rationing gas to industry usually starts in November. I have a weak record in the environment sector (Brier 0.236) and have underestimated outcomes there by about 34 points. That argues against staying near the climatologist's cautious 0.62. The Middle East chain's dominant scenario (purity 0.88) points to continuing strain on infrastructure. I set 0.75.