Infrastructure under fire dominates today's outlook: Zaporizhzhia's 14th power loss raises nuclear-safety anxiety, Sandworm cyber attribution against Ukrainian grid/rail is highly likely within 90 days, and a discovered Chinese seabed sensor pushes Indonesia toward a formal subsea security review. Meanwhile, despite an active $20B US-Iran cash-for-uranium proposal, a formal 60-day agreement remains improbable — and Iran is even less likely to close Hormuz while negotiating.

Fact-check strongly corroborates momentum: NATO has launched an innovation challenge on fiber-optic FPVs, Czech developers are already producing drones based on captured Russian fiber-optic UAV, and Japan's new UAV unit has signaled explicit interest in Ukrainian drone assistance. The threshold is only two NATO members announcing production — a low bar given Czech production is already operational and Poland, Baltics, and UK have active drone procurement programs. Russian drone-factory threats against European targets add urgency. I raise slightly above the analyst's 0.62 because the Skeptic (72) may have underweighted the speed of NATO defense-industrial momentum post-Feb 2024. Technologist has NO DATA weight, so I rely on external verification.