A Middle East de-escalation reframes the week: a US-Iran ceasefire extension reopens the Strait of Hormuz and revives talks, yet a comprehensive nuclear deal remains out of reach within 90 days. Elsewhere, the Russia-Ukraine war keeps escalating with deep-strike and Donbas pressure, while economic fault lines widen — EU tariffs on Chinese hybrids, accelerating Chinese de-dollarization, and a Russian rate-cutting cycle.

The military analyst is my single most reliable input (Brier 0.10, weight 0.29) and the directional logic is strong: Ukraine has consistently used long-range one-way drones against Russian rear targets, and a cheap, mass-producible 2700 km system erodes Russia's deep-rear sanctuary. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in clear ESCALATION (purity 0.52, dominant 'Real War Escalation' at 70% with 'long-range strikes increase' at 97%), which supports more deep strikes generally. However, the Skeptic (risk 76) correctly flags overstatement: the argument leaps from 'Ukraine does deep strikes' to this SPECIFIC system at this SPECIFIC ≥2000 km threshold with attribution. Achieving and confirming a ≥2000 km FP-1 strike (vs. the more common 500-1500 km range band) within six months is plausible but not the dominant case. I set 0.62 — above a coin flip given escalation momentum and capability, but discounted for the specificity/attribution hurdle. Military is a sector where I tend to slightly underpredict, so I avoid going lower.