The Iran war's aftershocks dominate today's outlook — Strait of Hormuz disruption is locked in through mid-May, driving a coming European rooftop-solar surge, while Israel holds its Lebanon ceasefire and Russia exploits Ukraine's stretched reserves at Kostiantynivka. Structural 'non-events' (UK-China attribution delay, absence of mass energy protests, suppressed Russian labor unrest) carry the day's highest convictions.

This is a short-horizon base-rate forecast with strong structural support: ceasefire extension in effect, second round of US-mediated Washington talks, potential Netanyahu-Aoun meeting, and no visible mobilization/staging for a northern maneuver. Base rate for launching a brigade-scale offensive within any given 21-day ceasefire window is low (<25% historically in this theater). Military is a weak sector for me (over by 24pp), and the military analyst (weight 0.48, my highest-weighted analyst) supports 0.66; I apply modest bias compression but hold conviction because 'no action' within 21 days has both high base rate and strong leading indicators (absent mobilization). Skeptic noted mostly negative evidence — valid concern — so I don't exceed 0.72. Leader context: Netanyahu's political survival calculus currently favors managed escalation with Iran proxies but avoiding a second Lebanon quagmire during active US diplomacy.