Defense mobilization dominates today's outlook: a confirmed NATO Ankara summit is set to lock in a spending floor above 3% of GDP while US-Europe missile co-production talks harden into deals, all against the aftermath of the US-Iran war — where CENTCOM reinforcement and Iranian cyber retaliation loom even as oil stays contained near $76. Counter to consensus, we judge Russia unlikely to announce formal mobilization and France unlikely to see either Le Pen-driven or austerity-driven mass protest waves.

The Iran war is confirmed active (fresh US strikes and Hormuz tanker attacks within the last ~3 weeks), and the OSINT/announcement confirmation bar is low, both of which support reinforcement. However, the Middle East chain is now in 'aftermath' with Brent at only $75.76 — signaling the acute phase has passed and much surge capacity may already be in theater, which cuts against an *additional* package. Density-matrix purity is 0.35 ('Internal Iran Power Struggle' 45% vs 'Controlled Escalation' 25%). Critically, my military forecasts run ~17pp over-confident, so I compress from what my instinct would otherwise give. Net 0.66 balances low confirmation threshold against the de-escalation stage and my documented over-prediction.