Victory Day risk dominates today's outlook: Moscow is poised for sweeping GPS and mobile shutdowns to defeat Ukrainian drones, while sustained US strikes on Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz keep Middle East energy markets locked in crisis — with no Iranian shipping concession in sight before month-end.

This is structurally a NO-event forecast — agreements are rare; the base rate of resolving entrenched maritime disputes within 26 days is very low. Key evidence: (1) Polymarket prices NO at 92% (though only 1.44x conviction — somewhat speculative); (2) Khamenei's profile (BVI 3, slow-strategic, regime-survival paramount) shows he never quickly concedes leverage points — historical pattern is calibrated retaliation then face-saving stasis, not breakthrough deals; (3) Bull/Bear personas converged tightly (spread 0.02), strong cross-bias signal; (4) Quantum persona shadow gives 0.95, suggesting constructive interference. However, my economics sector is WEAK (over by 31pp), and a prior similar Hormuz forecast at P=0.93 RESOLVED INCORRECTLY (overconfidence pattern flagged in memory). I therefore compress from analyst 0.72 / quantum 0.95 to 0.82 — confidently directional but accounting for both the possibility of a Trump-style 'surprise deal-claim victory' move (BVI 8 cycle ~1-4 weeks fits this window) and my own bias. Chain is in AFTERMATH stage which slightly raises the small chance of de-escalation.