Pentagon's confirmed 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany and the Federal Reserve's high-conviction extended pause anchor today's outlook, while Iran's Hormuz tax theater and Chornobyl forest fire generate headlines but lower follow-through risk than the consensus suggests.

Resolution bar is intentionally low — 'at least one localized episode' covers terminal confrontations, complaint protests, or even mass refund demands that draw police. Stranded passengers in Russian airports have already produced viral videos in 2024-2025 during similar drone-induced closures (Sochi, Vnukovo precedents). Collective Action Theory: physical co-presence + immediate shared grievance + low-cost coordination = high probability of at least one observable incident, even under a repressive regime that tolerates apolitical service grievances. Sociologist's reasoning is sound; my social sector is mildly weak (+15pp over-bias) so I trim from 0.75 to 0.70. The Russia-Ukraine war chain is in escalation stage with continuing strike tempo, so the underlying trigger is highly likely to recur. Skeptic risk score 74 endorses the falsifiability and specificity. Pillars: collective_action + institutional_trust converge.