As the US-Israel-Iran war enters its second month, cascading security effects dominate: Russia sustains record drone bombardment of Ukraine, Iranian cyber-warfare units prepare information campaigns around Bushehr contamination fears, and Gulf states under active missile attack face urgent air-defense procurement needs while US satellite imagery restrictions expand the wartime information blackout.

The technologist proposed P=0.68 (Skeptic-adjusted), but I adjust upward because the leading indicator has already materialized — Planet Labs confirmed halting Middle East imagery at US government request on April 4, 2026 (verified via fact check). The technologist has a significant overconfidence bias (-0.30), which would normally justify a haircut. However, in this case, the precedent is already set, fundamentally changing the base rate calculation. During the 2003 Iraq invasion, the US government purchased exclusive rights to Ikonos satellite imagery to deny adversaries open-source intelligence — this 'shutter control' pattern recurs during active US military operations. The event chain context shows escalating military operations: 'US-Israel expand Iran targets to infrastructure' (31 clusters, escalation, stalled), 'US Centcom struck 12,300 targets in Iran since February' (30 clusters, escalation). With active military operations at this scale, US OPSEC interests strongly favor extending imagery restrictions. The resolution criterion is whether at least one additional provider beyond Planet Labs receives similar government pressure — given the operational tempo, this is highly probable within 30 days.