AI infrastructure hits its physical-world ceiling: hyperscale data center power constraints, GPU procurement bottlenecks, and looming state-level permitting restrictions dominate today's outlook, while the May 31 Iran enrichment deadline approaches with no breakthrough in sight and Brent oil holds above $100.

Polymarket conviction at 94% with high OI provides triple-source validation alongside Hawk/Dove consensus (spread only 0.09) and ongoing blockade reality (Brent at $101.29 confirms Hormuz disruption is unresolved). Fact-check confirms current US position is a 20-year enrichment freeze ask — not acceptance. Base rate for Iran nuclear deadlines being missed is extremely high. The Skeptic flagged over-reliance on Polymarket but the underlying logic (US asks for suspension, not acceptance) is rock-solid in a 21-day window. Trump's deal-making profile (BVI 8) does suggest occasional rapid reversal, but pivoting from blockade to enrichment-acceptance in 3 weeks would be unprecedented. I am confident above the merged 0.80 because the resolution criterion (no announced agreement) is binary and the status quo is firmly entrenched. Geopolitics is one of my better-calibrated sectors, so I trust this conviction.