Russia-Ukraine combat will breach any Victory Day truce theatrics while Moscow suppresses dissent at home; meanwhile, Polymarket and base rates jointly favor a Democratic House recapture in November, Iran-US tensions stay below the kinetic threshold despite the Hormuz blockade, and China's AI chip self-sufficiency push accelerates as DeepSeek V4 validates Huawei Ascend.

Climatologist 0.78, Skeptic risk 81 confirmed. The proposal is in my weak sector (environment, +18pp over-bias) but the base rate for a coal-dependent rapidly-growing economy posting an emissions decline is near zero — India has not posted a YoY emissions decrease outside of COVID-2020. What would make me wrong: (1) sudden recession halving growth — no current signal; (2) extreme monsoon failure cutting power demand — possible but rare; (3) data revision — possible but not a structural reason. Compressing toward 50% as my bias rule suggests would actually mis-calibrate against an essentially deterministic structural process; instead I raise probability since the analyst was conservative. Pillars: climate_risk + energy_transition. Climatologist weight low (0.13) but proposal is aligned with hard energy data, not speculation.