Regulatory and safety guardrails dominate today's outlook — from Anthropic codifying AI biosecurity controls to a widening U.S. push on minors' social-media protections — while a firming ruble locks in a Bank of Russia rate hold and Ukraine's wartime strains surface in tightening budgets and accelerating indigenous missile deployment.

The collective-action and policy-diffusion logic is sound: a large-state precedent lowers coordination costs for advocacy coalitions and gives other legislatures ready-made bill language, and many states already have child-online-safety bills in the pipeline. The Skeptic approved it cleanly (score 84) as falsifiable, in-domain, and base-rate supported. The main downside is legal — several such laws (e.g., prior state age-verification and design-code statutes) have been enjoined on First Amendment grounds, and 'enact' over 12 months faces both legislative-calendar and litigation friction. Critically, social is a WEAK sector for me (Brier 0.30, systematic +23pp overestimation), so I apply mandatory compression, moving from the sociologist's 0.70 down to 0.63. Sociologist carries full weight (1.00) in this sector, which keeps me from compressing further. A 12-month, one-additional-state bar remains more likely than not given the breadth of active state activity.