An intensifying Russia-Ukraine war drives Europe toward a fresh air-defense buildup and keeps nuclear-safety anxiety high at Zaporizhzhia — even as Moscow's stalled offensive stays far from capturing the Donbas fortress belt and its central bank sticks to cautious rate-cutting despite a fuel-price shock.

These are TRL-9 systems already in service, so this is a procurement/scaling question, not a technology-risk question. Fact-checking confirmed the momentum is real: Ukraine plans to combat-test SAMP/T NG against Russian ballistic missiles in 2026, and the coalition exists. The 'European political and defense restructuring' chain (development, 816 clusters) has EU Defense Autonomy as its leading interpretation (40%), consistent with a coalition converting to hardware. The Skeptic (risk 82) correctly flagged the main weakness — European coalitions often produce plans before deliveries within a stated window. But the resolution bar here is an ANNOUNCEMENT of a tranche, not delivery, which is easily met given sustained strike pressure and existing production lines (Diehl, Eurosam). Technologist weight is modest (0.13) but this sits at the defense-procurement intersection where coalition politics dominate. My technology calibration is strong (Brier 0.19), so I trust a probability slightly above the dead-zone ceiling. I hold near the analyst's 0.71.