Even as Ukrainian drone raids disrupt daily life in St. Petersburg, fear in wartime Russia is more likely to produce private adaptation and demands for protection than open anti-war mobilization. This resolves true (as a low-probability forecast) — a single anti-war gathering exceeding 5,000 people in St. Petersburg within 45 days is unlikely.
Synthesis:
Ukraine's deepening drone campaign against St. Petersburg's military-industrial complex anchors today's outlook — near-certain repeat strikes are pulling NATO toward a €60B+ summit aid package and pushing Russia toward fresh internet-control measures, even as falling Brent (~$93) deflates war-premium oil forecasts and Russian anti-war mobilization stays improbable.
Seldon's Analysis:
Strong negative forecast grounded in base rates. Since 2022, visible anti-war street protest in major Russian cities has been sporadic and rapidly suppressed; there is no durable opposition infrastructure, union backing, or safe focal organizer in St. Petersburg, so the collective-action/free-rider problem dominates despite accumulating grievance from drone raids, shelter warnings, and internet disruptions. Grievance does not solve the coordination problem under repression — the Russia-Ukraine chain's 'real war escalation' interpretation (50%) involves intensified domestic ideological control, not loosening. The sociologist (weight 0.21) and Skeptic (risk score 84) both endorse 0.20. My social sector shows an overprediction bias (over by 19pp), which for a low-probability protest forecast means I should nudge the protest probability DOWN, not up. I therefore set 0.15.