The Iran war's stranglehold on global energy markets dominates today's outlook—Brent crude is forecast to hold above $100 through April while Gulf tanker rates face further spikes—as Western nations race to form a Hormuz naval coalition and Tehran is expected to escalate information warfare targeting American public opinion.

I assess P=0.70, slightly above the analyst's 0.66, based on converging institutional momentum from multiple event chains. Supporting evidence: (1) UK-France 30-nation military talks represent serious institutional mobilization beyond preliminary diplomacy—the scale of participation suggests political will is building. (2) Japan's consideration of minesweeping (ESCALATION stage, 16 clusters over 8 days) is historically unprecedented for a constitutionally pacifist nation—this signals acute crisis perception beyond normal threat assessment. (3) UAE's ADNOC CEO labeling restrictions 'economic terrorism' (AFTERMATH stage, 16 clusters, well-established narrative) provides political legitimacy and Gulf buy-in for aggressive collective action. (4) The 'Europe pressured to reopen shipping lanes' chain (DEVELOPMENT, 6 clusters, stalled) confirms persistent political demand. I distinguish between 'formally announced' (a political declaration with named participants) and 'operationally deployed' (which takes months). The 2019 International Maritime Security Construct was announced within weeks of the Gulf tanker attacks, despite far less severe conditions. Current crisis severity—oil at $113, global shipping disruption, Asian energy crisis—creates much stronger urgency. Network theory strengthens this forecast: Hormuz is a single-point-of-failure node whose disruption cascades across global energy, shipping, food, and manufacturing supply chains. This cascading impact creates overwhelming collective-action incentive that overcomes typical coordination friction. Key risks: (a) US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough could reduce urgency; (b) Iran could partially ease restrictions as negotiating leverage; (c) 30-nation coordination inherently involves free-rider problems and lowest-common-denominator commitment levels. The Skeptic (risk score 72) appropriately flagged 'formally established' as a high bar, which I address by interpreting this as formal political announcement rather than full operational capability.