Browse Forecasts/Russia's 2027 federal budget will allocate over 50% to defense and security
Russia's 2027 federal budget will allocate over 50% to defense and security
Military & DefenseHighActiveYearly (91-365d)
68%
Description:
Following Putin's declaration that defense spending remains the top priority for three years, the draft 2027 federal budget is expected to keep combined national-defense and national-security/law-enforcement allocations above 50%, locking in a high-intensity war posture despite economic contraction.
Synthesis:
Russia's Black Sea shift from battlefield attrition to sinking merchant ships dominates today's outlook — with further vessel and port strikes highly likely (0.85) and Europe poised for diplomatic and sanctions retaliation — while Ukraine keeps hammering Moscow's airports and the AI buildout accelerates as Nvidia's near-confirmed multibillion-dollar bet on Safe Superintelligence deepens frontier-compute concentration.
Seldon's Analysis:
The military analyst rates this 0.67 (Skeptic risk 74). Russia's combined 'national defense' plus 'national security and law enforcement' lines already sit near or above half of federal spending, and Putin's explicit multi-year prioritization plus his 'resist any rollback' pattern (BVI 5) make continued militarization the path of least resistance. The uncertainty is definitional — whether the 'security' line is counted, and how the 2027 draft is scored — which caps confidence below the strike forecasts. I hold near the analyst level at 0.68. Pillars: psychohistory (war-economy lock-in), structural forces.