Energy supply shocks dominate the outlook: US strikes on Iranian tankers and Houthi hits on Saudi facilities hold Brent above $100 while European gas surges past €79/MWh into the tightest pre-winter storage since 2013. Beneath the commodity stress, a hardening security economy takes shape — accelerating Russian loyalty prosecutions, a >10% German defense budget jump, AI-driven election interference ahead of the US midterms, and a defense-tech munitions scaling race.

I treat this as a technology/industrial-scaling forecast (technologist proposed it, weight 1.00, and it's my strong tech sector) rather than a military-operations question, where my record fails. Munitions demand is acute post-Iran-conflict, venture-backed defense primes (Anduril and peers) are aggressively scaling cheap long-range strike, and the AI-industry buildout chain reinforces a defense-tech capital surge. A production or shipment *announcement* (not fielded combat capability) within a full year is a modest bar given the funding environment. The Skeptic (risk 72) supported the direction. I hold near the analyst's 0.62, edging up to 0.66 to clear the dead zone; the main risk is definitional — whether a demonstrator/prototype announcement counts as 'production/shipment' — plus normal defense-procurement slippage.