Russia is locking in its war footing: a record 17-trillion-ruble 2027 defense budget, a 1.55-million-strong army and a missile range closure at Kapustin Yar, with no domestic protest likely to push back. Meanwhile a likely December Fed hike, OpenAI's safety-driven training pause and a 3-million-record Pentagon breach show institutions responding under pressure.

A fact-check confirmed United Russia's nomination on 24 September after the party leadership met Putin. It also confirmed the one rival, the Communist Dmitry Novikov. United Russia holds a large majority, and in managed systems nominated incumbents almost always win: Volodin was re-elected smoothly in 2021 in the same way. The Skeptic's 0.86 left room for a late Kremlin personnel change. After a public nomination blessed by Putin, the only realistic risk is a surprise reassignment, which I put under 5%. The first session normally opens within about 30 days of the September vote, so the timing is safe. I also correct for my tendency to underestimate geopolitics outcomes by about 12 points. Regime-dynamics and historical-cycle reasoning both support this.