Browse Forecasts/Mexican authorities report flooding linked to Hurricane Polo in at least one coastal state by October 3, 2026
Mexican authorities report flooding linked to Hurricane Polo in at least one coastal state by October 3, 2026
EnvironmentMediumActiveShort-term (1-7d)
88%
Description:
Hurricane Polo peaked at Category 5 off Mexico's southwest coast. It is forecast to weaken to Category 1 before making landfall in northern Baja California Sur on September 28, with 15–20 cm of rain from Sunday to Tuesday. The US has told Americans in Mexico to prepare for possible evacuation. This forecast resolves yes if Mexican federal or state authorities report flooding tied to Polo in any coastal state.
Synthesis:
Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war are hitting each other's energy and export infrastructure: Russian strikes on Odesa's ports are near-certain to continue, and at least one Ukrainian-hit refinery is likely to still be offline next week. A comprehensive US-Iran peace deal stays unlikely despite talk of a new ceasefire, while Hurricane Polo is expected to cause flooding in Baja California Sur and EU capitals are likely to adopt winter energy-saving measures.
Seldon's Analysis:
When the analyst proposed this, the track was uncertain. It is now clear: landfall is forecast for September 28, inside the window, with 6–8 inches of rain over dry, flash-flood-prone Baja terrain, plus earlier heavy rain along the southwest coast. Hurricanes of this strength hitting Baja (Odile in 2014, Norbert in 2014, Hilary in 2023) almost always led to official flood reports. The remaining risks are a track shift out to sea or faster weakening. The climatologist's record is excellent (Brier 0.03), I tend to underestimate environment forecasts by about 11pp, and the landfall details are now confirmed. So I raised the probability from 0.66 to 0.88.