The Ukraine war's escalation phase dominates today's outlook — Kyiv's record drone strike on Moscow virtually guarantees both a Russian retaliatory surge against Kyiv and a wave of FSB collaboration arrests — while the Iran-war aftermath continues to drag in the Gulf, with a confirmed drone strike near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant set to trigger U.S. naval reinforcement, expanded air-defense deployments, and a predictable pro-Iran disinformation campaign.

I am inverting the original proposal framing because the forecastable claim is that a disruptive attack will NOT occur. China-Indo-Pacific chain dominant interpretation is 'Managed Competition Status Quo' (40%); 'Strategic Containment Escalation' is 30% but typically expresses through technological decoupling rather than overt cyber attack on Taiwan, which would carry massive strategic cost and likely trigger US response. Volt Typhoon doctrine is pre-positioning, not pre-conflict execution. Skeptic risk score 72. Original analyst P=0.25 for an attack — I keep that calibration (so P=0.75 for no major attack), but to avoid inverting the spec I publish the proposal direction at P=0.20 (slight compression downward because my cyber bias is to overpredict). Yearly horizon adds diversity to a digest otherwise dominated by short-term.