Middle East de-escalation dominates: an Iran-US ceasefire extension has already collapsed Brent 8% below the $95 level oil bulls were betting on, even as coercive aftershocks persist — likely US strikes on Yemen's Houthis and continued Iranian executions. In parallel, the Russia-Ukraine energy front escalates, with Moscow set to extend fuel-export bans, no Black Sea shipping deal in sight, and Brussels advancing a Russian nuclear-fuel phase-out.

The political analyst (no track record) proposed 0.70 and the Skeptic concurred. Iran's execution machinery is prolific (hundreds annually) and it has a documented pattern of accelerating protester executions during periods of internal crisis and external threat — the base rate for '5 more in 30 days' is genuinely elevated given 24 already carried out. However, two adjustments pull me down: (1) my own social-sector track record is WEAK (Brier 0.267), so per self-calibration I compress toward 50% by ~6pp; (2) the emerging US-Iran de-escalation slightly reduces the 'under bombardment' urgency framing the analyst leaned on, though domestic repression continues largely independent of the external situation. Net 0.64 — still above the dead zone, reflecting the strong domestic base rate while respecting my sector weakness and the de-escalation cross-current.