Escalating Russia-Ukraine deep-strike exchanges dominate the outlook — British-supplied drones now openly enabling Ukrainian raids and near-certain Russian retaliation within two weeks — while oil markets stay calm ($88 Brent) despite Middle East tension, and Israel's West Bank governance shift drives localized displacement without tipping into a full uprising.

The political analyst (no track-record data, default weight) rated this 0.68; Skeptic passed at risk 72. The forecast bundles two events — Guardian Council approval AND a visible enforcement action — which raises the compound bar and is why I trimmed slightly to 0.66 (just above the dead zone). Iran's regime has a strong, well-documented pattern of tightening information control and using exemplary arrests during periods of external threat, and the Middle East chain remains in a post-war aftermath phase that supplies the 'wartime security' justification. I classify this as social/domestic-repression rather than pure geopolitics. Given no reliability data on the political persona and the compound-event structure, I kept this modest rather than following the analyst higher.