Russia's war on Ukraine dominates the outlook — from a winter energy crisis and continued rejection of wartime elections to intensifying domestic repression and cross-border influence and interference operations reaching into France's 2027 race — while NATO's red line holds (a direct Russia-UK strike remains unlikely) and southern Europe's peak-season wildfire emergency runs hot.

This sits in my strongest sector (geopolitics, Brier 0.18) and the analyst (weight 1.00, improving) is well within domain. The Skeptic scored this 87 with correct base-rate handling: wartime national elections under active occupation, missile threats, martial law, and mass displacement are historically almost never held, and legally cannot be under Ukraine's current martial-law regime. Elite legitimacy debate creates noise but not electoral capacity — stress does not equal a scheduled vote. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION (grid strikes, mobilization), which makes secure nationwide campaigning even less feasible over the horizon. I apply a small downward nudge from the analyst's 0.82 to 0.80 for my mild geopolitics overestimation bias (+7pp), but the structural constraints are decisive. Pillars: regime_stability, structural_forces, historical_parallels.