Today's outlook is dominated by structural continuity rather than rupture: Ukraine's leadership will likely keep deferring the politically explosive 18-year-old draft, Kevin Warsh moves toward Fed Chair confirmation after a smooth Senate hearing, and Brent crude is unlikely to sustain a $110+ Q3 average despite ongoing Middle East strain — even as IAEA warnings, Pakistani heat-driven restrictions, and Russian ASAT pressure underscore the slow grind of compounding regional crises.

Verified Brent spot: $105.33. For Q3 average to exceed $110 requires sustained ~5% appreciation through July-September, against typical seasonal demand softness post-summer driving and OPEC+ likely capacity response above $110. The economist (weight 0.37) proposed 0.28 probability of $110+ — i.e., 0.72 of NOT exceeding. My economics track record shows +36pp overpredict bias on price/inflation outcomes; correcting toward economist's view is warranted. Middle East war chain is in AFTERMATH stage (purity 0.39) with 'Protracted Energy Conflict' interpretation at 55% — suggesting elevated but not necessarily $110+ prices. I settle at 0.70 (probability of NOT exceeding $110 average), reflecting that the current $105 baseline could either spike on Hormuz incident or normalize toward $90s if diplomatic channels open.