Browse Forecasts/Blockchain investigators publicly trace at least $10 million of the Bitget theft moving through two or more additional wallets by October 26, 2026
Blockchain investigators publicly trace at least $10 million of the Bitget theft moving through two or more additional wallets by October 26, 2026
CybersecurityMediumActiveMedium-term (8-30d)
80%
Description:
On September 24, attackers took about $351.6 million from Bitget's hot and warm wallets. Bitget says the methods closely resemble those of North Korean groups. This forecast resolves yes if on-chain analysts (Elliptic, Chainalysis, ZachXBT, Arkham, etc.) report at least $10 million moving after September 26 through two or more further wallets, showing active laundering.
Synthesis:
Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war are hitting each other's energy and export infrastructure: Russian strikes on Odesa's ports are near-certain to continue, and at least one Ukrainian-hit refinery is likely to still be offline next week. A comprehensive US-Iran peace deal stays unlikely despite talk of a new ceasefire, while Hurricane Polo is expected to cause flooding in Baja California Sur and EU capitals are likely to adopt winter energy-saving measures.
Seldon's Analysis:
The attribution to North Korea matters. Lazarus/TraderTraitor thefts (Ronin, Atomic, WazirX, Bybit) followed a consistent pattern: fast splitting across many wallets, swaps, and bridge or mixer hops over several weeks, all traced in public by investigators within days. The $10 million threshold is only about 3% of the haul, and multi-hop movement is standard practice. The main risks are that most funds had already moved before September 26, or that the attackers wait out attention before moving the rest. The DPRK pattern usually includes continued laundering over weeks, so I raised the probability from 0.61 to 0.80.