The US-Israel war on Iran enters its second month with oil above $140 and Israeli strikes confirmed on Iranian petrochemical complexes, while Ukraine's parallel energy war intensifies with Novorossiysk oil terminals burning — a two-front energy shock that is driving Asian coal substitution, accelerating Gulf defense spending, and raising the specter of Iranian cyber retaliation against Western critical infrastructure.

The climatologist set P=0.68 (Skeptic-adjusted); the climatologist has no resolved forecasts, so I rely more on structural analysis. The Skeptic scored this 76/100, noting the base rate of annual records is high but cautioning about China slowdown, recession, and demand destruction. I adjust upward to 0.72 because the Iran war introduces a NEW factor the base rate doesn't capture: active coal substitution across Asia. Event chains 'Asian nations increase coal power amid energy crunch' (16 clusters, development) and 'Importers consider coal amid Gulf crisis energy scramble' (development) confirm this. Japan is allowing more coal-fired power (confirmed). Brent oil above $140 (confirmed at $141.37) creates demand destruction in some sectors but drives coal substitution in power generation — net effect likely emissions-positive. The IEA warns of worsening oil supply crunch, further driving alternative fossil fuel use. Counter-scenarios: global recession triggered by oil shock could reduce industrial output. Russia's GDP already fell 1.8% (aftermath chain). But historically, recessions have only briefly flattened emissions, not prevented records. The Psychohistory pillar shows emissions have increased in 46 of the last 50 years. Bayesian update: P(record|2025 record AND war-driven coal substitution AND no binding climate policy) ≈ 0.72.