Wartime supply shocks dominate the outlook: Ukraine's drone campaign is pushing Russia toward a fuel-rationing crisis and deeper telecom lockdowns, while Iran's fresh attack on Gulf shipping draws a likely US naval reinforcement. Elsewhere, Europe tightens shadow-fleet enforcement, Colombia's new hardline president eyes the ELN, and—against the alarmist narrative—benign volatility suggests the S&P 500 avoids a 5% drop.

Fact-check confirmed the core claims: Tatneft, Moscow and St. Petersburg retailers have imposed sale limits, and Vedomosti reports Russia weighing fuel imports and subsidies — direct evidence that domestic supply cannot cover demand. Forecast memory shows four prior Ukrainian refinery-strike forecasts all resolved CORRECT at P=0.95, confirming the drone campaign's reliability and downstream price effects; this chain is in ESCALATION. The Skeptic's risk score (71) and the economist proposal (weight 0.21) align. I hold slightly below the analyst's 0.74 only because the specific 110-ruble threshold 'in a majority of restricted regions' adds measurement uncertainty versus the underlying (near-certain) trend of worsening shortages. My economics track record skews toward underprediction (under by 18pp), so I resist discounting further. Bayesian inference + psychohistory (recurring wartime supply-shock pattern) support this.