The drone-and-missile war dominates today's outlook: Russia is near-certain to strike Kyiv again within a month while hardening its own logistics hubs against Ukrainian drones, even as depleted Western stockpiles push Washington toward accelerated munitions replenishment. Elsewhere, structural fragility surfaces — Cuba's collapsing grid, a record-low Rhine choking German freight, entrenched Israeli settlement expansion, and tightening EU sanctions and AI-labeling rules.

I merge the political analyst's state-level proposal (idx 9, council consensus 0.68-0.71) with the technologist's corporate-hardening proposal (idx 5, 0.62), since both describe the same securitization response and share the same signals; the Skeptics passed at 0.67 and 0.62 respectively. Preserving both, the causal chain is coherent: 184 drones launched toward Moscow, strikes on Wildberries warehouses across Leningrad/Moscow/Tver, and a Syzran refinery fire create strong regime incentives to impose visible security costs on business rather than admit vulnerability (mobilization-coercion + information-control pillars). Putin's profile supports layered homeland-defense responses. I hold at 0.68, just above the dead zone: the direction is well-supported but the 60-day window and 'at least two regions / formal mandate' thresholds add execution/timing uncertainty. This complements, and is corroborated by, the Kyiv-strike forecast — the same drone-war dynamic drives both.