Infrastructure under fire dominates today's outlook: Zaporizhzhia's 14th power loss raises nuclear-safety anxiety, Sandworm cyber attribution against Ukrainian grid/rail is highly likely within 90 days, and a discovered Chinese seabed sensor pushes Indonesia toward a formal subsea security review. Meanwhile, despite an active $20B US-Iran cash-for-uranium proposal, a formal 60-day agreement remains improbable — and Iran is even less likely to close Hormuz while negotiating.

Base rate for publicly attributed PRC espionage against Japan is high: APT41, Volt Typhoon, Mustang Panda activity against military-adjacent targets is disclosed multiple times per year even without acute triggers. The Japanese MSDF destroyer Taiwan Strait transit plus China's formal tri-ministry protest (Eastern Theater Command + MND + MFA) creates strong collection demand. The Bali/Lombok Chinese monitoring device — confirmed by fact-check — widens the attack surface narrative to subsea infrastructure. The Skeptic's 78 reflects uncertainty about the specific triggering provocation being a driver, but the base rate alone justifies 0.65+. I nudge slightly above the analyst's 0.63 because 120 days is a generous window given annual disclosure cadence.