The US-Iran war's cascading effects redefine the global security landscape: Pentagon munitions diversion threatens Ukraine's frontline, Gulf states seek unprecedented defense guarantees after direct Iranian strikes on their soil, and structural deglobalization accelerates — while Russia's cyber apparatus and hyperscaler resilience gaps create new nodes of vulnerability across sectors.

The economist's structural thesis is supported by multiple converging forces, and I set probability at 0.70 after weighing both momentum factors and counter-trends. The US-China Trade War analogy (2018-2025) is directly relevant: it demonstrated that great-power rivalry produces lasting trade architecture changes — Huawei lost access to advanced chips, semiconductor supply chains bifurcated, and the 'decoupling' framework became bipartisan US policy. The current Iran war adds a new dimension: Hormuz disruption (DEVELOPMENT stage, 20 clusters over 9 days) has demonstrated the catastrophic vulnerability of concentrated trade chokepoints, and Deutsche Bank's warning that the war 'could end the petrodollar' (DEVELOPMENT stage, 10 clusters) reflects structural financial system risk. Multiple event chains confirm the cascading nature: 'Countries implement measures amid global energy crisis,' 'Russia predicts most severe energy crisis in human history,' and 'Asia faces energy crisis impacts from war disruptions' all point toward supply-chain diversification as a permanent strategic priority. The 5 percentage point decline from current levels (~55-58% trade-to-GDP) would be historically significant — comparable to the post-2008 trade collapse but sustained rather than cyclical. Counter-arguments I weigh: digital services trade continues growing, emerging market integration (India, ASEAN) partially offsets US-China decoupling, and wars eventually end. However, industrial policy proliferation (CHIPS Act, EU sovereignty initiatives, Japan's semiconductor strategy) represents government-level commitment to reshoring that is unlikely to reverse. The structural forces — great-power rivalry, supply chain diversification, energy security, and tariff escalation — are self-reinforcing over a decade. Psychohistory framework: civilizational trade retrenchment following systemic shocks has multiple historical precedents (post-WWI, 1930s, early Cold War).