Ukraine's deepening long-range strike campaign dominates the outlook — another confirmed deep strike on Russia's rear is highly likely within 30 days, driving visible Russian air-defense hardening around Moscow and at Engels and squeezing civilian life in occupied Crimea. Secondary threads include probable fresh Chinese EV demand subsidies, a long-rumored but still-unlikely Tajik dynastic succession, and a sub-average but probably-not-record Arctic ice minimum.

Same structural logic as Engels but with a tighter window and a Moscow focus. Roughly 80 drones reportedly intercepted near Moscow in one night, the Dubna space-comms strike, and the Kuntsevo tree-cutting controversy (suggesting S-400 site preparation) point to active adaptation of the capital's defensive belt. The Skeptic passed at 0.74. I hold near that (0.75) — the 90-day horizon and the broad 'at least one new site' bar make this likely, but visible/confirmable activation within exactly 90 days is the binding uncertainty. This forecast is distinct from the Engels one (capital-region air defense vs. strategic-bomber sheltering), so both belong in the digest. Military analyst (highest reliability weight); Force Balance and Military Doctrine pillars.