Sticky US inflation and an enduring Middle East energy shock anchor today's outlook, while three technology forecasts — orbital data centers, NATO defense AI procurement, and Israeli counter-drone hardening — show how the post-Iran-war infrastructure cycle is reshaping capital flows from space ventures back to terrestrial and battlefield-proven systems.

I am inverting the framing from the analyst (who said P=0.10 for a test) to make the more confident negative forecast actionable. Base rate for nuclear tests is extremely low — since 1998 only North Korea has tested, and only after years of declared programs. Iran has not announced weaponization, has no demonstrated weapons-grade enrichment confirmed, and is still in post-strike recovery from the Middle East aftermath chain. A test would terminate any diplomatic option Iran retains. Military sector is WEAK for me (over by 24pp), but here I am pushing LOW which is the opposite of my bias — appropriate self-correction. Khamenei's profile suggests calculated caution, not catastrophic gambits when regime survival is the priority.