A fragile 15-day US-Iran ceasefire dominates today's outlook: Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad are imminent as Brent crude plunges 13% to $94.60, but CENTCOM maintains combat-ready posture in the Gulf while Iran channels wartime trauma into domestic mobilization and Turkey tightens security after an attack on Istanbul's Israeli consulate.

Both political hawk and dove converged tightly (spread 0.02) at a merged 0.77, with the Skeptic adjusting upward to 0.80. I push slightly further to 0.83 based on structural analysis. Iran's succession mechanism is constitutionally deliberate: the Assembly of Experts must convene, deliberate, and vote — a process designed to prevent coups and maintain institutional continuity. Wartime is precisely when formal leadership transitions are LEAST likely for authoritarian theocracies: the regime needs to project unity and stability, not vulnerability. Historical parallel: even during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), Khomeini's health crises did not trigger formal succession planning until after the ceasefire. The current ceasefire creates a different dynamic than active bombardment, but 90 days is still too short for the institutional machinery to execute a formal handover. The information fog of war naturally amplifies succession rumors — this is a well-documented pattern in closed regimes under stress. Mojtaba's behind-the-scenes influence may indeed be growing, but the forecast specifically asks about PUBLIC FORMALIZATION, which is the hardest and slowest step. Game Theory supports: all major factions (IRGC, clergy, political class) prefer ambiguity during crisis over a potentially destabilizing formal transition. I set 0.83 — high confidence that formalization won't occur, acknowledging the small tail risk of a genuine health emergency forcing accelerated succession.