Middle East post-conflict dynamics dominate today's forecast: Hormuz commercial shipping is likely to normalize under coalition escort within 45 days even as Israeli street protests cross 10,000 participants and Iranian antiwar mobilization remains suppressed by regime coercion. Strategic realignment continues with the newly-signed Pax Silica U.S.-Philippines semiconductor zone and expected NATO brigade reinforcements in Eastern Europe.

Israel has one of the densest protest infrastructures in the OECD — the judicial-overhaul and hostage-family networks built in 2023-2025 lower coordination costs dramatically, and these are the same organizers now calling rallies. Fact-check confirms this is already the sixth consecutive week of mobilization, meaning the cumulative count is already approaching threshold regardless of any single-day surge. Skeptic approved at 0.78 with 86 risk score; I nudge up to 0.82 because (a) the 'cumulative across multiple cities within 30 days' framing is structurally easier to hit than a single-day 10K figure, and (b) my social-sector Brier (0.17) is reliable. Psychohistory pillar (institutional trust cycles) and collective-action pillar converge. Main downside risk: security crackdowns suppressing counts, but reports already show 'several thousand' per rally — threshold likely crossed within weeks.