China's deadliest mine disaster in 16 years drives a sweeping accountability and tech-mandate response, while Russia's repression apparatus grinds on and Putin's Oreshnik threats face base-rate skepticism. CXMT's DDR5 breakthrough sets up the next round of US semiconductor controls, and Brent above $100 keeps food-import-dependent fragile states on a 9-month unrest trajectory.

Strong base-rate forecast: protest-forced resignations in consolidated Western European democracies are below 10% historical frequency absent a triggering legal event or coalition collapse. The council was contested (DeepSeek 0.20 vs GPT 0.83 vs Claude 0.82) but the disagreement is illusory — DeepSeek argued for *low protest success*, others for *high failure of protests*, which is the same direction. Sociologist track record is excellent (Brier 0.09 in social sector — my best agent). No labor, student, or regional coordination is visible; the free-rider problem persists; Junts and PNV support of the coalition has not visibly cracked. I slightly raise to 0.84 from skeptic-adjusted 0.78 because the analyst's institutional analysis is robust, sociologist weight is high, and the 90-day window protects against late surprises while excluding the most plausible failure mode (snap legal event in months 4+).