Today's outlook is dominated by structural inertia in active conflicts: the US-Israel-Iran theater holds in aftermath despite escalatory rhetoric, while Russia's grinding Donetsk offensive is unlikely to seize Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka within 90 days. Cyber and information-warfare risks rise as Pentagon AI contracts publicly disclose a high-value attack surface to APT actors.

Analyst proposed 0.22, already low. WHO/FAO formal policy timelines are notoriously slow — even acute crises like avian flu or Ebola produce formal frameworks over 6-18 months. The institutional inertia argument is overwhelming for a 90-day window on a chronic, low-salience environmental health issue. My environment sector is weak (Brier 0.303, over by 18pp), warranting compression — but 0.22 is already low, so compression toward 50% would actually mean raising it, which contradicts the institutional base rate. I therefore lean on base-rate logic over bias correction and settle at 0.12. The Climate Change chain is in development stage with 50% 'Genuine Transition Accelerates' interpretation, which doesn't specifically argue for crop-nutrition policy responses.