AI-enabled cyberattacks and hybrid warfare headline today's outlook: a Reuters-confirmed Russian-speaking crew is weaponizing AI coding agents against Western firms, likely to draw formal regulator warnings and spread further, while Russia intensifies its deep-strike and information-war campaign around Kyiv. On the deterrence side, Sweden's already-announced Gripen-and-warship deployment to Finland hardens NATO's Baltic flank — even as an Iran/Hormuz oil-price shock and a formal German AfD ban both remain unlikely tail risks.

I keep this below the dead zone as a considered low-probability call. The historical base rate is discouraging: Germany's two prior NPD ban attempts (2003, 2017) both failed, and the Constitutional Court's Parteiverbot bar is deliberately extreme. The interwar-backsliding analogy underscores that democratic institutions 'erode gradually then suddenly' and that formal legal bans are rarely the chosen tool — governments hesitate to hand extremist parties a martyrdom narrative, especially with the AfD now polling near the top. There is genuine active discussion (a supporting signal) and the extremist classification lowers the legal threshold, which is why I sit at 0.22 rather than lower — but a formal filing within 12 months remains a minority outcome. I align with the Skeptic's 0.27, trimmed for base-rate weight.