Diverging trajectories dominate today's outlook: a genuine US-Iran-Oman diplomatic track is capping Middle East energy risk (Brent likely to stay below $90), while the Russia-West confrontation intensifies on every other axis — record-pace Ukrainian deep strikes, a 22nd EU sanctions package, European IRIS-T air defense filling the US Patriot gap, and Moscow's pre-election internet lockdown — against an unresolved post-New START arms-control vacuum.

This is a high-base-rate directional forecast: the CCP's consistent historical pattern after any data/security embarrassment is to tighten the surveillance apparatus (hardening, audits, expanded tracking), never to relax it. The security-first framing is reinforced by the SCO counter-terror drill signal. The political analyst has no track-record weight yet, so I lean on domain base rates rather than the proposal's number. The main uncertainty is measurability — 'tighter governance' is somewhat soft — which caps confidence. I raise slightly to 0.74 from the Skeptic's 0.66 because the direction (more control, not less) is near-certain given Beijing's psychohistorical pattern; the residual uncertainty is about visible, attributable policy actions within 180 days. Adds East Asia and platform-governance coverage to the digest.