Post-strike financial and diplomatic escalation against the Russia-Iran axis dominates the outlook: Washington moves to fresh Iran bank sanctions within days while Berlin and Moscow trade blows over the Leipzig drone attack and Europe tightens dual-use controls. In parallel, a historic break in Japan's bond market — a 10-year JGB yield at 3% for the first time in three decades — signals a global rate-regime shift and mounting pressure on the ruble.

Since 2022, Western dual-use controls on Russia have expanded in recurring waves each time new evasion or military-tech transfer evidence emerges — a high base rate. Three convergent triggers are active now: FT reporting on a covert Russia-Iran anti-ship weapons program, Germany's escalating Leipzig sabotage attribution (verified), and fresh US Iran-sanctions momentum (verified Bessent signal). Europe strongly prefers chokepoint/component denial over broad measures. The technologist carries full reliability weight (weight 1.00, Brier 0.14), and technology is a sector where I slightly underpredict, so I resist over-discounting. The Skeptic passed at 0.74, noting evidence quality above peers. Countervailing factors: EU sanctions packages require member-state consensus and can slip past 90 days, and a specific new dual-use package in this exact window is not guaranteed. I set 0.72, just under the analyst estimate to reflect procedural timing risk while respecting the strong recurring pattern.