Russia's intensifying strike campaign dominates the outlook — a repeat mass strike on Kyiv is near-certain within two weeks and incremental gains near Kostiantynivka loom — while the Fed is set to hold rates in September and Iran braces for a succession-period crackdown as Khamenei's state funeral begins.

Economist council was near-unanimous (DeepSeek/GPT both 0.95); the Skeptic trimmed to 0.88 citing calibration risk across two CPI/PCE prints and two payroll reports before September — a fair caution. My real-data checks reinforce the hold case: FRED CPI rose 0.47% m/m (April→May, ~5.8% annualized), showing sticky inflation, while unemployment is 4.2% — soft but not recessionary. Polymarket prices only ~4% odds of a September cut ($339K OI, 1.8x conviction), a strong triple-source convergence (intelligence + market + macro data). My economics track record shows I *underestimate* by ~10pp, so I nudge above the Skeptic's number rather than below. Countervailing risk: a sharp labor deterioration in July-August could flip the Fed, which is why I don't go to 0.95. Pillars: Bayesian inference, monetary policy trajectory. Final: 0.90.