War economies harden on both fronts: the Russia-Ukraine attrition entrenches as Europe revives the frozen-assets debate and Moscow deepens conscription registration and corporate coercion, while Trump's new grid-security emergency order accelerates US-China tech decoupling and primes a PRC energy-sector cyber disclosure. A Swiss neutrality referendum offers Moscow a longshot sanctions loophole — but polling points firmly to defeat.

I concur with the political council's downward revision (0.30) and the Skeptic (0.29). The core analytic point is sound: formal external management is a high-visibility legal mechanism, whereas the Kremlin's post-2022 revealed preference is quieter coercion — criminal cases against executives, negotiated equity transfers, informal pressure. Putin's profile (deliberate, weeks-to-months, prefers stabilization over alarming the domestic elite) supports the quieter path. Fines currently function as deterrence and revenue, not a committed step toward seizure, and no actual external-management case has yet materialized. This sits as a genuine but secondary tail risk. I hold at 0.24, marginally below the council to reflect the absence of any triggering case and to keep it out of the dead zone as a clear low-probability call.