Browse Forecasts/China's annual oil consumption will decline by at least 10% from 2026 levels by 2036, driven by EV adoption and renewables

China's annual oil consumption will decline by at least 10% from 2026 levels by 2036, driven by EV adoption and renewables

EnvironmentHighActiveDecade (1-10y)
74%
Description:

China's sustained clean energy investments, aggressive electric vehicle deployment, and policy commitments under successive five-year plans are structurally reducing oil dependence in the transport sector. However, growing petrochemical, aviation, and freight demand may partially offset road-fuel declines, making a 10% absolute reduction ambitious over a decade.

Synthesis:

The US-Iran conflict dominates today's outlook: Strait of Hormuz disruption and attacks on Kharg Island are driving oil prices toward $120, while US force reinforcements surge toward the Gulf and Lebanon's displacement crisis deepens toward 1.5 million — a regional conflagration with cascading global economic consequences.

Part of Narrative:
triggersamplifies82%Brent crude oil will exceed …95%Iran will conduct a retaliat…74%China's annual oil consumpti…
Analysis:
Probability History:
03/18/2026, 06:21 AM03/21/2026, 03:06 PM03/26/2026, 03:06 PM04/01/2026, 03:06 PM04/05/2026, 06:28 PM04/07/2026, 11:08 PM04/09/2026, 04:15 PM04/13/2026, 11:12 PM0%25%50%75%100%
Classical (applied)Quantum (shadow)