Great-power stabilization anchors the outlook: Xi Jinping's confirmed Sept 24 Washington summit is set to yield narrow US-China energy deliverables even as a Saudi pipeline strike pushes Brent to $104 and forces European emergency energy measures. Beijing and New Delhi are poised to keep buying Russian oil despite Washington's new sanctions law, while gray-zone friction in the South China Sea, anti-AfD mobilization in Germany, and sticky US mortgage rates round out a multi-crisis week.

This is effectively confirmed: web verification shows a state visit scheduled for September 24, 2026, with Trump having issued the invitation, and Polymarket pricing it at 94% with 3.5x conviction. The Skeptic passed it at 91 and independently confirmed the Sep 24 date. Both sides have strong incentives to cap friction while the Iran/Middle East war (density matrix 94% 'real escalation', Hormuz risk) raises the cost of another US-China shock. The only material downside is Trump's high behavioral volatility (BVI 8) — a last-minute reversal is his signature move — but state visits locked six days out virtually never cancel, and Xi (BVI 2, structured party process) does not reverse committed travel. I set 0.95 rather than higher only to reserve tail probability for a Trump-side disruption. Pillars: power dynamics + structural forces + historical parallels.