Russia-Ukraine war and Iran conflict continue to drive geopolitical risk, with durable ceasefires and formal peace talks both unlikely while US strikes on Iran resume — yet oil markets are signaling de-escalation rather than escalation, and the Fed is on hold. AI infrastructure governance emerges as the structural story: Pentagon classified-network deployment and US grid cost-allocation battles reshape who pays for the AI buildout.

The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION stage with dominant 'Ceasefire Maneuvering' interpretation (40%) but the secondary 'Russian Narrative Shift' interpretation (30%) explicitly predicts Ukraine peace offers rejected and continued strikes. Putin's behavioral pattern (BVI 5, slow deliberation, refuses rollback without face-saving formula) makes durable 14-day halt extremely unlikely. Base rate is decisive: in 2022-2025, no front-wide ceasefire has held more than a few days, despite multiple announcements. The Skeptic flagged that the '16,000 violations' figure is loosely anchored — fair point, but doesn't change the structural conclusion. Military analyst's weight is only 0.10 but the forecast is consensus with base-rate evidence so strong it overrides agent-weight discount. I lift the probability above the analyst's 0.63 because: (1) chain context is escalation, (2) Putin profile explicitly resists rollback, (3) the bar of 14 consecutive days front-wide is very high. I compress slightly from my instinct of 0.88 due to my military sector overestimation bias (+21pp).