Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
Browse Forecasts / Israel and Lebanon will hold at least one direct, officially acknowledged talks session within 14 days Israel and Lebanon will hold at least one direct, officially acknowledged talks session within 14 days Geopolitics High Resolved Medium-term (8-30d) Incorrect
Description: Despite active hostilities on the northern front, Reuters and Haaretz report that both sides are preparing for direct talks, with Lebanon forming a delegation. The 2022 maritime boundary negotiations demonstrated both states can engage on narrow technical issues without broader normalization. Talks would aim at deconfliction and border stabilization while the wider Iran war continues.
Synthesis: The Iran-Israel war drives today's forecasts: US emergency interceptor resupply to Israel is near-certain as stocks hit critical levels, while diplomatic channels between Israel and Lebanon may open even as the fighting continues, and escalating militia attacks in Iraq threaten US force posture in the region.
Part of Narrative: amplifies enables 5% Israel and Lebanon will hold… 93% No formal ceasefire agreemen… 95% Internally displaced persons… Analysis: Geopolitician +
Skeptic Approved Confidence Score: 74/100
+ Probability History: 03/15/2026, 01:11 PM 03/16/2026, 12:15 AM 03/16/2026, 06:20 PM 03/17/2026, 12:20 PM 03/18/2026, 12:14 AM 03/18/2026, 06:19 PM 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% ▼ Probability Updates (11)
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