An active Iran war anchors today's outlook: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a US blockade, sustaining a >1 mb/d oil shortfall and raising the odds of another Israeli strike on Iranian soil within three weeks, while Russian forces breach and encircle Kostyantynivka in Ukraine and China races ahead on hyperscale AI infrastructure.

The technologist (Brier 0.028, excellent) proposed 0.68; the Skeptic agreed but flagged a valid semantic gap — the title says 'commission' (bring online) while indicators support contract awards/construction starts, which are easier. I weight that caveat, but China's demonstrated build speed, the scale of the $300bn program, and a large existing pipeline make five operational hyperscale commissions over a full 12 months highly achievable. This is corroborated by the AI chain's dominant 'Corporate Infrastructure Race' interpretation (45%, sovereign AI +80%). Technology is my strongest sector and I systematically under-predict there (by 15pp), so I raise modestly above the analyst to 0.72, while staying short of high-confidence given the commission-vs-construction definitional risk the Skeptic raised.