AI-enabled cyberattacks and hybrid warfare headline today's outlook: a Reuters-confirmed Russian-speaking crew is weaponizing AI coding agents against Western firms, likely to draw formal regulator warnings and spread further, while Russia intensifies its deep-strike and information-war campaign around Kyiv. On the deterrence side, Sweden's already-announced Gripen-and-warship deployment to Finland hardens NATO's Baltic flank — even as an Iran/Hormuz oil-price shock and a formal German AfD ban both remain unlikely tail risks.

My fact-check confirms this is already announced at governmental level ('at least through end of 2026', following a Finnish request), which collapses the primary uncertainty — political will and inter-allied friction. This is fundamentally an administrative-execution forecast of a decided policy, not a combat-outcome prediction, so my failing military-sector bias (over by 44pp, which reflects a broken combat causal model) applies less here; I therefore only lightly compress. Both nations are NATO members with interoperable systems (Gripen). Three-model council consensus (0.78-0.82) and Skeptic risk 84 reinforce. I hold above the Skeptic's 0.72 because the deployment has moved from announcement toward execution, but cap at 0.80 to respect residual scheduling/reporting risk and my sector humility.