As the US-Israel air campaign against Iran enters its second month with Brent crude above $110, today's outlook spans the cascading consequences: the dollar's reserve dominance remains structurally resilient despite de-dollarization narratives, while China's renewable energy ecosystem consolidates a commanding global position — and European streets begin to mobilize against the economic and humanitarian costs of the conflict.

This forecast rests on one of the strongest base rates in macroeconomics: reserve-currency transitions take decades, not quarters. The IMF COFER data confirms the USD share has declined gradually from ~71% to ~57% over two decades — a pace of roughly 0.7pp per year. For the dollar to fall below 55% by Q1 2027 would require a 2pp drop in under a year, roughly triple the historical rate. While the Iran war has intensified petroyuan settlement discussions and gold accumulation by central banks (gold at $4,662 confirms safe-haven demand), these flows are marginal relative to the $13 trillion FX reserve pool. The Skeptic's assessment is strong: the causal chain is coherent and grounded in COFER base-rate logic rather than anecdotes. I accept the Skeptic's suggestion that valuation-driven reserve-share moves, faster RMB diversification, and central-bank gold substitution are real downside risks — but even in aggressive scenarios, these collectively cannot produce a >2pp shift in one year. Powell's low-BVI (2/10) ensures Fed policy predictability, which preserves dollar asset attractiveness. The Kondratiev Wave 5 analogy suggests we're in a structural adjustment period, but the dollar's network effects in trade invoicing, SWIFT settlement, and debt denomination create enormous path dependency. Bayesian Inference and Psychohistory pillars both support this: the prior is very strong and the evidence for rapid shift is insufficient to move it.