Middle East de-escalation dominates: an Iran-US ceasefire extension has already collapsed Brent 8% below the $95 level oil bulls were betting on, even as coercive aftershocks persist — likely US strikes on Yemen's Houthis and continued Iranian executions. In parallel, the Russia-Ukraine energy front escalates, with Moscow set to extend fuel-export bans, no Black Sea shipping deal in sight, and Brussels advancing a Russian nuclear-fuel phase-out.

The climatologist (Brier 0.14, improving, though low formula weight 0.07) proposed only 0.20 that two bodies revise projections upward — i.e., the analyst already assesses this as unlikely. I agree and go slightly lower to 0.15. The underlying physics signal (rising energy imbalance) may well be real, but the forecast is about INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSE speed, and IPCC/WMO reassessment cycles run on multi-year, consensus-bound timelines — formal upward revisions by two bodies inside 60 days would be nearly unprecedented. My environment track record is solid (slight overprediction bias, over by 6pp), which argues for nudging this low-probability call down rather than up. I include this for sector diversity and because the gap between physical signal and institutional lag is itself an important, actionable insight. Chaos-theory and Bayesian pillars (measurement campaigns updating priors) support the physics but not the near-term institutional trigger.