Wartime supply shocks dominate the outlook: Ukraine's drone campaign is pushing Russia toward a fuel-rationing crisis and deeper telecom lockdowns, while Iran's fresh attack on Gulf shipping draws a likely US naval reinforcement. Elsewhere, Europe tightens shadow-fleet enforcement, Colombia's new hardline president eyes the ELN, and—against the alarmist narrative—benign volatility suggests the S&P 500 avoids a 5% drop.

Fact-check confirmed de la Espriella's narrow victory over leftist Iván Cepeda, his Trump-aligned 'iron fist against criminal groups' platform, and an August 7 inauguration. This is a direct reversal of Petro's negotiated approach, making an ELN-directed hardline shift highly probable. The 6-month horizon comfortably covers his first ~4.5 months in office, ample time to suspend talks or order offensives. The Skeptic's risk score (71) and the geopolitician (weight 0.26, core domain) support this. The Western Hemisphere chain's competing 'Real Instability' (political violence 80%) and 'Coercive Diplomacy' interpretations both point toward harder security policy. I nudge slightly above the analyst's 0.67 given the clear electoral mandate and campaign commitments. Residual uncertainty: new presidents often prioritize cartels/general security first, and formal ELN-specific escalation may lag. Psychohistory (hardliner-takes-office pattern) + game-theory pillars apply.